WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM?

FINANCIAL TIMES

TERROR: AL-QAEDA THREAT IS SMALLER BUT JIHAIDISM REMAINS

By James Blitz

More than a decade after the 9/11 attacks on America, few western governments would argue that the threat from international terrorism has been completely eradicated.

But over the past 12 months, jihadists have suffered such a stream of setbacks that US and European policymakers are today feeling a good deal more confident about the outlook for domestic security.

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The setbacks for jihadists over the past year have been seen on numerous fronts. In May of 2011, Osama Bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda, was killed by a US Navy Seal operation in Pakistan. A few months later, Anwar al-Awlaki, the US-born cleric who was deemed by western governments to be the next big target after bin Laden, was killed in Yemen. In the meantime, the core al-Qaeda group in the tribal areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan is being increasingly decimated by US drone attacks and is now down to a handful of figures on the run.

Still, western intelligence agencies are far from complacent. It is hard to imagine that al-Qaeda could today pull off a complex, spectacular attack on the scale of the one that the US experienced on 9/11. But the terrorist threat that the US and Europe faces is still tangible – and is certain to dominate the minds of UK authorities this year as they prepare for the summer Olympic Games in London.

“al-Qaeda, as a formed structure, is certainly being destroyed by US action,” says a western government official. “However, what is also clear is the underpinnings of jihad have not gone away. We face a threat that is more disaggregated and geographically divided than it was, and there are developments that suggest that new challenges may emerge in the years ahead.”

As they cast their eyes over those challenges, senior figures in intelligence agencies would probably pick out three new fears. First, the Arab Spring has reduced the political and security grip that was once enjoyed by a number of autocratic regimes over their own people. The US, Britain and France have backed popular uprisings in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Syria. But the emergence of mildly Islamist governments in these countries may give jihadists more liberty to move and work against western security interests.

A second fear is the future of Afghanistan. The US-led Nato mission in the country continues to ensure that the Taliban insurgency is broadly checked. But the US and its allies will be out of the country in less than three years from now, ending what will by then have been a 13 year occupation. This is forcing counter-terrorism experts to start exploring what kind of international threat the Taliban might pose after 2014 when it will will have more room for manoeuvre. As one western official puts it: “In Afghanistan, we are currently in a counter-insurgency campaign but we will soon be back to a counter-terrorism situation.”

The third broad concern is the shift of jihadist movements away from south Asia to new centres closer to the west. In Somalia, there are dozens of foreign fighters working alongside the al-Shabbab islamist extremist movement. Today they are fighting Somalia’s beleaguered government but they may yet turn their attention to the UK and Europe. In Nigeria, terrorist attacks conducted by Boko Haram, a jihadist group, are of growing concern in western capitals, amid fears that this group might try to internationalise their efforts to gain publicity.

None of this, meanwhile, should distract attention from the threat posed by jihadists inside Pakistan and also by the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. Another big attack by LeT on India, one akin to the devastating Mumbai attacks of 2008, could seriously destabilise India-Pakistan relations and have an impact on inter-ethnic relations in the UK.

All of this gives western intelligence experts food for thought. But they do not see the terrorist challenge simply in terms of changing geography. They also stress that one of the biggest challenges remains the role played by the internet, which allows jihadists to propagate messages that can encourage local people in the US, Britain and Europe to carry out attacks.

The activities of Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen have shown in the past how a talented, radical preacher can encourage a range of ordinary people in the US and Britain to engage in jihad. Despite the killing of Awlaki, there are fears that such preaching by others will be the model for future terrorist outrages where vulnerable individuals are encouraged to carry out deeds by themselves.

“We face a lower threat than was the case a few years ago when the core of al-Qaeda was launching complex and spectacular plots,” says one intelligence official.

“But that does not mean the danger has gone away. The big worry today is of the disaffected and lone figure who has been radicalised over the internet but of whom there has been little trace of any criminal activity.

None of this, meanwhile, should distract attention from the threat posed by jihadists inside Pakistan and also by the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. Another big attack by LeT on India, one akin to the devastating Mumbai attacks of 2008, could seriously destabilise India-Pakistan relations and have an impact on inter-ethnic relations in the UK.

All of this gives western intelligence experts food for thought. But they do not see the terrorist challenge simply in terms of changing geography. They also stress that one of the biggest challenges remains the role played by the internet, which allows jihadists to propagate messages that can encourage local people in the US, Britain and Europe to carry out attacks.

The activities of Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen have shown in the past how a talented, radical preacher can encourage a range of ordinary people in the US and Britain to engage in jihad. Despite the killing of Awlaki, there are fears that such preaching by others will be the model for future terrorist outrages where vulnerable individuals are encouraged to carry out deeds by themselves.

“We face a lower threat than was the case a few years ago when the core of al-Qaeda was launching complex and spectacular plots,” says one intelligence official.

“But that does not mean the danger has gone away. The big worry today is of the disaffected and lone figure who has been radicalised over the internet but of whom there has been little trace of any criminal activity.”

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